9th Graders on track for graduation

Students who are on track at the end of their 9th grade year are four times more likely to graduate than those who are not.  Research shows this is a stronger predictor of graduation than background characteristics or previous achievement test scores.  “On track” in Oregon means a student has enough credits to progress to the next grade level and has been present for at least 90 percent of enrolled school days. 

Helping students make a strong transition from 8th to 9th grade could make them more likely to stay on track and graduate.  Even students who showed weak academic achievement or a disadvantaged socioeconomic status are more likely to graduate when they are on track in 9th grade. In Central Oregon, disadvantaged students are less likely to be on track to graduate than their peers.  In Jefferson County schools, we see an impressive percentage of 9th graders on track to graduate, for both the socioeconomically disadvantaged population and total population.  It is important to note that a large proportion of the total student populations in these school districts are included in the socioeconomically disadvantaged group which is likely why there is little disparity between the groups as can be seen in the other two counties.

Helping students transition from 8th to 9th grade as well as careful monitoring of students’ grades in the first semester of their freshman year, when there are still plenty of opportunities to improve grades, are promising practices that can help our students stay on track. 

Data Source: Hewitt, Krissi. “2013–14 Regional Achievement Compact Data.” Oregon Education Investment Board, Office of the Chief Education Officer. E-mail to authors, January 6, 2015.

Allensworth, Elaine, and John Q. Easton. “The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation.” University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research. (June 2005). http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation.